Enroll Course: https://www.coursera.org/learn/judgmental-business-forecasting-in-excel
In the realm of business, accurate forecasting is paramount. While quantitative methods like time series and regression models form the backbone of many forecasting strategies, there are often situations where purely data-driven approaches fall short. This is where judgmental forecasting steps in, and the Coursera course, “Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel,” offers a comprehensive guide to mastering this crucial skill.
Building upon the foundational knowledge from earlier courses in the Business Forecasting Specialisation, this course delves into the nuances of judgmental forecasting. It expertly explains when and why judgmental methods are necessary, particularly when dealing with situations where quantitative models have limitations or when the goal is to extract deeper business insights. The course doesn’t just preach the theory; it provides practical, structured methodologies for creating these forecasts.
The syllabus is thoughtfully structured, beginning with a vital overview that sets the stage for what’s to come. It then meticulously explores three key areas:
- Business Indicators: This section is particularly insightful, focusing on how to leverage business indicators to understand and predict the cyclical components of the business cycle. The practical application of these insights using Excel is a significant takeaway.
- Subjective Assessment Methods: Here, the course introduces three distinct methodologies: the Sales Force Composite Method, the Jury of Executive Opinion, and Subjective Probability Assessments. Each method is explained clearly, with a strong emphasis on how Excel can facilitate their execution.
- Exploratory Methods: The course rounds out its core content with an exploration of the Delphi Method and Scenario Analysis. Again, the practical integration with Excel is a highlight, making these often abstract concepts tangible.
A particularly valuable component of the course is the dedicated section on Biases & Bringing All of Business Forecasting Together. It’s crucial to acknowledge the potential for bias in any judgmental process, and this course doesn’t shy away from this. The final case study serves as an excellent capstone, allowing learners to apply the principles learned, make informed decisions about forecasting method selection, and practice judgmental forecasting in a realistic scenario.
Recommendation:
For anyone looking to enhance their forecasting capabilities beyond purely quantitative models, “Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel” is an excellent choice. The course strikes a perfect balance between theoretical understanding and practical application, with a strong emphasis on leveraging Excel’s capabilities. It’s highly recommended for business analysts, financial planners, sales managers, and anyone involved in strategic decision-making who needs to incorporate qualitative insights into their forecasting processes.
Enroll Course: https://www.coursera.org/learn/judgmental-business-forecasting-in-excel